Sitemap - 2021 - Cheap Convexity

Is the Dollar Topping?

Is Q1 Going to be a Boom?

December FOMC Preview

The Fed's Jason Furman Pivot

JSTA Community Podcast

Omicron Showed that the Fed Put has been Re-struck Lower

Thinking About the Omicron Effect

The Disconnect Between EMFX and Hawkish Central Banks

Is Short JPY the Next Big FX Trade?

Stocks say Bonds are Wrong

Fed Preview: Hawkish Optionality is not Incompatible with FAIT

Why Don't Equities Care?

How Stable is China's Current FX Policy?

Can FAIT avoid the BoE’s fait?

Central Banks are Nervous, Which is Hawkish

The Tricky Duality for Risk Assets, Growth vs. Implieds

Whatever Coalition is Formed in Germany, Europe is Healing

September FOMC Preview

Previewing the Central Bank Madness

The Clarida Flattener

Powell Jackson Hole Recap

Dovish in Theory, More Hawkish in Practice

Macro in a World of Conflicting Signals

The RBNZ, Idiosyncratic or a Dovish Warning?

Clarida vs. Brainard and the Battle for FAIT

Should China Macro be worried about China Tech?

Three Themes for the Post June FOMC

The Bond Market is not Omniscient

The Bond Market is Now Short Powell

ECB Strategic Review, The Formalization of Draghinomics

Very Dovish to Regular Dovish

Looking Past Peak Everything

Central Bank Divergence Part 2

Nobody is Bullish Enough on Growth

The Copper Bull Market has Only Just Begun

FAIT, not Dead, but Wounded

June FOMC Preview

Why Doesn’t the Market Care about Inflation?

Two Different Reaction Functions

The Credit Impulse is not Telling the Whole Story in China

What if r* is going up?

EM won't Fear Taper this Time Around

Is Taper Now a Dovish Catalyst?

The Summer of Europe

This Week Changes Nothing for the FOMC, but it Does Present a Communication Challenge

The U.S. Economy is on Fire, but it’s kind of a Mess Right Now

Yellen's Comments and the Age of Orthodox Heterodoxy

Is the Summers Residual here to Stay?

Can EM Now Play Catchup?

The ECB's Shallow Follow Through

The Yellen Doctrine

Peak Divergence?

Central Bank Divergence is Here

Defending FAIT

Under The Fed's New Framework, is Calendar Guidance Inevitable?

Are Markets Inflecting or Proving their Resiliency?

How does FAIT win in 2021