Cheap Convexity
The past two CPI reports have seen core inflation rise pretty considerably. Headline CPI is running at 5.0%, core at 3.8%, and the past two month over month prints have been 0.9% and 0.7%. This to say, inflationary pressures even outside of base effects are clearly rising. With …
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Both Lael Brainard and Richard Clarida have added two key things to their communication since the April minutes. Clarida said it would probably be appr…
Jon Turek
Jun 8CommentShare
There seems to be this large disconnect between the macro community’s take on China vs. the anecdotal, survey, and hard data on the ground, which from …
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Jun 4Share
The 'Celestial Stars' seem to be changing again
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Jun 2Share
Last week we discussed the idea that a taper of QE in the U.S. may actually be turning into a dovish catalyst. The reason being is, the market has alre…
Jon Turek
May 26CommentShare
Following the minutes from the April FOMC meeting, taper is now back in focus. It feels like there are a couple key reasons why the taper headline was …
Jon Turek
May 21Comment 1Share
One of the main risks for markets going into Q2 was: how would the European vaccination program evolve. Between the new coronavirus variants and slow v…
Jon Turek
May 16Comment 2Share
The CPI numbers released on Wednesday of this week were obviously attention grabbing. 0.9% MoM and 4.2% YoY were both big beats relative to estimates. …
Jon Turek
May 14Comment 1Share
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Cheap Convexity


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