I don't want this post to act as mea culpa, but I do want to dwell a bit on some of the ideas I have posed over the past couple of months, which in a MTM sense have been wrong. I want to further dig into my US 2s v Schatz trade (yes, red/green steepner in ER "worked") and the USD/CHF short, both of which I pontificated would be good trades going into year end. During my encounters with macro people I look up too, it was always engrained in me that macro is a combination of leverage and timing, with my two recent ideas I got the timing wrong, but the reason I bring this up is because I believe this mistake has a lot to offer in terms of coming moves in macro, especially re CB's and their toolkits, and this is what I will focus on. Especially in light of the recent ECB decision.
Leverage and Timing October 30
Leverage and Timing October 30
Leverage and Timing October 30
I don't want this post to act as mea culpa, but I do want to dwell a bit on some of the ideas I have posed over the past couple of months, which in a MTM sense have been wrong. I want to further dig into my US 2s v Schatz trade (yes, red/green steepner in ER "worked") and the USD/CHF short, both of which I pontificated would be good trades going into year end. During my encounters with macro people I look up too, it was always engrained in me that macro is a combination of leverage and timing, with my two recent ideas I got the timing wrong, but the reason I bring this up is because I believe this mistake has a lot to offer in terms of coming moves in macro, especially re CB's and their toolkits, and this is what I will focus on. Especially in light of the recent ECB decision.