As we head into one of the key macro/central bank periods of the year, I thought I would share a few thoughts with regard to policy changes and expectations. I think it is very interesting that we are entering a time where the ECB will discuss the evolution of their sprawling easing program, the Fed will be beginning to unwind their balance sheet after the September meeting, and vol in rates is on the floor. Another important aspect of this jigsaw is the knock on effects of these two events. With regard to the ECB, how does the BoE, Riksbank and SNB respond if Draghi outlines a withdrawal of monetary easing in October? As a whole, the dichotomy between perceived event risk and market pricing is large, which means macro could be pretty interesting going into year end. As a side, the black and white charts of my previous post, are dead! Instead, I overcame my laziness and put speciality charts, such as workbench, into excel. Long live clear charts.
Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole
As we head into one of the key macro/central bank periods of the year, I thought I would share a few thoughts with regard to policy changes and expectations. I think it is very interesting that we are entering a time where the ECB will discuss the evolution of their sprawling easing program, the Fed will be beginning to unwind their balance sheet after the September meeting, and vol in rates is on the floor. Another important aspect of this jigsaw is the knock on effects of these two events. With regard to the ECB, how does the BoE, Riksbank and SNB respond if Draghi outlines a withdrawal of monetary easing in October? As a whole, the dichotomy between perceived event risk and market pricing is large, which means macro could be pretty interesting going into year end. As a side, the black and white charts of my previous post, are dead! Instead, I overcame my laziness and put speciality charts, such as workbench, into excel. Long live clear charts.