Well, it's a new year, and with it comes expectation for extensive shifts in DM central bank policy, which is exciting. As a whole, there are a few potential themes I am currently interested by. First, how sustainable are these effective ECB forward guidance pegs, especially if the Italian elections in March slow recent rhetoric from Nowotny and Couere down. I think there are some broader non EUR European crosses that play on this theme in a relatively outcome agonistic way. Second, there seems to be a paradigm shift in China, or one I am late to, and it has large ramifications for FX and rates. And finally, the dichotomy between improving economic fundamentals and worsening geo politics will make for some interesting trades in FX, as in some cases, the latter has been sorely under priced. I am usually scared of making calls in January, as it tends to be a month where consensus wins, but I did anyway.....
First of 2018
First of 2018
First of 2018
Well, it's a new year, and with it comes expectation for extensive shifts in DM central bank policy, which is exciting. As a whole, there are a few potential themes I am currently interested by. First, how sustainable are these effective ECB forward guidance pegs, especially if the Italian elections in March slow recent rhetoric from Nowotny and Couere down. I think there are some broader non EUR European crosses that play on this theme in a relatively outcome agonistic way. Second, there seems to be a paradigm shift in China, or one I am late to, and it has large ramifications for FX and rates. And finally, the dichotomy between improving economic fundamentals and worsening geo politics will make for some interesting trades in FX, as in some cases, the latter has been sorely under priced. I am usually scared of making calls in January, as it tends to be a month where consensus wins, but I did anyway.....