The Chances of a "Brainard Pause"

After being relatively quiet over the past few months, Brainard has now given two speeches in the matter of weeks that are pointing to her preference being for some type of pause in the Fed’s hiking cycle. Really since her speech in May, when she quoted Volcker, Brainard has not been a big part of the Fed’s policy communique (at least in speeches). The marquee speeches have come from Powell, Waller and regional Fed presidents such as Mester/Kashkari/Bullard, who have all had prominent voices as the Fed escalated its tightening measures to 75bp rate hikes at June FOMC. But now, in the past two weeks, Brainard has given two important speeches focusing on the policy cycle, global cross currents and the inflation outlook. And maybe more clearly at the NABE conference this week than at the NY Fed two weeks ago, Brainard seems to think the Fed should begin being a lot more careful.

The question for this this post is twofold:

1. What is Brainard’s case to pause and is it clear that she wants a pause after December FOMC?

2. Would Brainard have enough committee support for an end of year pause (post December FOMC)?