Should we Fear QT?

Something that has become increasingly relevant in 2022, especially following the December FOMC minutes, Fed-speak in January and the January FOMC,  is quantitative tightening, aka QT. The reality is, we know very little about the QT transmission mechanism. QT is not even just the inverse or reciprocal of QE. For QE, basically the one thing we do know is that it is an open-ended forward-guidance tool. As long as the Federal Reserve is buying bonds, it cannot raise interest rates. The flip side of that does not exist for QT. It does not by itself convey any information about interest rate policy.

However, I will propose a few thoughts: