ECB Preview: Does "Hawkishly Patient" Work at 5% Inflation?

This is going to be one of the trickiest ECB meetings in the central bank’s twenty year history. That is a history that involves crisis and existential risk to the European project. However, what the ECB is facing now is right up there. It may not be the sovereign debt crisis, covid or the GFC, but it is a crucial test. It was only six weeks ago that the ECB outlined a path to hiking interest rates. And since then, a Russian invasion has made the issue they were shifting policy to deal with even that much worse. The ECB is facing the real possibility of 5-7% inflation in the context of a material growth slowdown. The question now going into Thursday’s meeting is, how does the ECB play its incredibly challenging cards?